Wary EA Investors Betting Against Star Wars: The Old Republic

Tangential to our interests, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey is quoted in a Gamasutra article as stating that EA investors – already concerned about possible issues EA is facing – do not have great confidence in the Star Wars: The Old Republic MMORPG being economically successful.

“We believe many investors are betting against SWTOR achieving market success, provided the company’s (Warhammer Online from Mythic) and industry’s track record at releasing successful new MMOs,” suggests Hickey.

EA’s last big MMORPG effort, Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning, became something of a cautionary tale in setting high expectations for a major MMO launch. Much was made of the title’s potential to reinvent player combat and social dynamics in an online world, and the outspoken enthusiasm of Mythic co-founder Mark Jacobs played a role in the broad view that WAR represented EA’s ambitious bid to challenge WoW.

But the title’s launch was anticlimactic; despite drawing an impressive 500,000 subscribers in its first week, that number saw a rapid drop-off soon after, and a wave of server consolidations followed, giving the game’s humble performance quite a visible profile.

Not much analysis there but it’s interesting in light of single-player studios like BioWare and Bethesda (or rather their parent companies EA and ZeniMax) investing heavily in MMORPG versions of successful franchises. Mike Hickey doesn’t provide much detailed analysis but still, doesn’t he (or rather investors) have a point on high-risk low-probability-of-success?